Asia’s emerging economies are leading the way out of recession; now they must make their recovery last
亚洲的新兴经济体正在走出萧条的泥潭;现在,他们必须要把经济复苏保持下去

IT NEVER pays to underestimate the bouncness of Asia’s emerging economies. After the region’s financial crisis of 1997-98, and again after the dotcom bust in 2001, outsiders predicted a lengthy period on the floor—only for the tigers to spring back rapidly. Earlier this year it was argued that such export-dependent economies could not revive until customers in the rich world did. The West still looks weak, with many economies contracting in the second quarter, and even if America begins to grow in the second half of this year, consumer spending looks sickly. Yet Asian economies, increasingly decoupled from Western shopping habits, are growing fast.
对亚洲经济回弹能力的低估永远都是得不偿失的。首先是1997-1998年亚洲金融危机,紧接着在2001年网络泡沫破裂后,局外人都估计亚洲经济会在低谷盘旋很长一段时间 – 只有四小虎的经济可以迅速回弹。今年的早些时候,大家都认为在发达国家的消费者恢复生息之前,亚洲这种出口依赖型的经济不可能会复苏。西方国家的经济看起来还很疲软,很多经济数据在二季度有所下跌,尽管今年二季度美国经济开始增长,消费者支出还是萎靡不振。然而越来越脱钩于西方消费习惯的亚洲经济,增长迅猛。

The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more than 10% (see article). Even richer and more sluggish Japan, which cannot match that figure, seems to be recovering faster than its Western peers. But emerging Asia should grow by more than 5% this year—at a time when the old G7 could contract by 3.5%. Western politicians should brace themselves for more talk of economic power drifting inexorably to the East. How has Asia made such an astonishing rebound?
四个新兴的亚洲经济体在二季度报告的GDP数据以平均超过10%的年增长率上行,它们是:中国,印度尼西亚,韩国和新加坡(见文)。即使是更富有萧条也更严重的日本,其增长率虽然不能同这四个国家相媲美,但似乎也比西方同伴们恢复的要迅速。但是新兴亚洲经济体今年的增长应该会超过5% – 同时期老的G7集团的经济总量会减少3.5%。西方的政治家应该更多的讨论一下经济实力以不可遏止之势向东方转移这焉能高的事情以达到自我振作。为什么亚洲会实现如此惊人的回弹?

An astonishing rebound 惊人的回弹

Out of smoke and mirrors, say some Western sceptics. They claim China’s bounceback is yet another fake. The country’s numbers are certainly dodgy: the components of GDP do not add up, and the data are always published suspiciously early. China’s economy probably slowed more sharply in late 2008 than the official numbers suggest. But other indicators, which are less likely to be massaged, confirm that China’s economy is roaring back. Industrial production rose 11% in the year to July; electricity output, which fell sharply last year, is growing again; and car sales are 70% higher than a year ago.
西方对此持怀疑态度的人说亚洲经济的惊人表现只是一场骗局。他们声称中国的经济回弹甚至是另外一个骗局。中国的经济数据肯定靠不住:其GDP的组成部分并不合理,而且令人怀疑的是,经济数据总是过早被公布。2008年晚些时候,中国经济的下滑可能比官方数据显示的更猛烈。但是另外一些不太可能被做手脚的指标证实了中国经济是在强势反弹。截至到今年7月,工业产出增长了11%;去年猛跌的发电量再次增长;而且汽车销售量比一年前增加了70%。

And surely the whole of Asia cannot be engaged in a statistical fraud. South Korea’s GDP grew by an annualised 10% in the second quarter. Taiwan’s probably increased by even more: its industrial output jumped by an astonishing annualised rate of 89%. India was hit less hard by the global recession than many of its neighbours because it exports less, but its industrial production has also perked up, rising by a seasonally adjusted rate of 14% in the second quarter. Output in most of the smaller Asian economies is still lower than a year ago, because they suffered steep downturns late last year. But at economic turning points, one should track quarterly changes.
可以肯定是,不可能整个亚洲都陷入统计欺诈中。韩国的GDP在二季度以10%的年增长率增长。台湾的增长可能更快:其工业产出以惊人的89%的年增长率急速上行。相比于大多数的邻国来说,印度受全球萧条的打击较小,因为他的出口较少,但是印度的工业品产出也在增加,按季节因素调整后,二季度的增长率是14%。大多数亚洲经济体的产出仍然比一年前少,因为他们去年遭受了严重的经济衰退。但是在经济拐点时期,应该关注的是季度数据变化。

Thrift in the boom, stimulus in the slump
富时节流,穷时开源

Asia’s rebound has several causes. First, manufacturing accounts for a big part of several local economies, and industries such as cars and electronics are highly cyclical: output drops sharply in a downturn and then spurts in the upturn. Second, the region’s decline in exports in late 2008 was exacerbated by the freezing up of global trade finance, which is now flowing again. Third, and most important, domestic spending has bounced back because the fiscal stimulus in the region was bigger and worked faster than in the West. India aside, the Asians entered this downturn with far healthier government finances than rich countries, allowing them to spend more money. Low private-sector debt made households and firms more likely to spend government handouts; Asian banks were also in better shape than their Western counterparts and able to lend more. Asia’s prudence during the past decade did not allow it to escape the global recession, but it made the region’s fiscal and monetary weapons more effective.
亚洲经济的回弹是有原因的。首先,在一些国家里制造业占本国经济很大的一个部分,而汽车和电子这样的产业周期很长;经济萧条期间产出急剧收缩而经济上升阶段产出又会出现井喷现象。其次,全球贸易融资的冻结加速了亚洲地区在2008年年底的出口下滑,而这项融资现在已经重启。第三也是最重要的一点是,因为亚洲地区的财政刺激相比于西方来说规模较大生效较快,所以国内消费已经恢复。除印度以外,亚洲国家在进入经济衰退期时政府财政情况都好于发达国家,这使得他们可以花更多的钱来刺激经济。私人部门的债务不多使得家庭和公司更愿意消费政府救济品;亚洲银行的处境也要比其西方的同行们强,并且他们有能力放更多的贷款。亚洲在过去10年里的谨慎并没有使其逃过全球经济萧条的影响,但是却使得该地区的财政和货币工具更有效。

Western populists will no doubt once again try to blame their own sluggish performance on “unfair” Asia. Ignore them. Emerging Asia’s average growth rate of almost 8% over the past two decades—three times the rate in the rich world—has brought huge benefits to the rest of the world. Its rebound now is all the more useful when growth in the West is likely to be slow. Asia cannot replace the American consumer: emerging Asia’s total consumption amounts to only two-fifths of America’s. But it is the growth in spending that really matters. In dollar terms, the increase in emerging Asia’s consumer-spending this year will more than offset the drop in spending in America and the euro area. This shift in spending from the West to the East will help rebalance the world economy.
毫无疑问,西方的民粹主义者又会把其自身经济的萎靡不振归罪于“不按套路出牌”的亚洲。不要在意这些言论。新兴的亚洲经济体在过去20年里平均的经济增长率接近8%,是发达国家的三倍,这为世界其它国家带来了巨大的利益。在西方世界可能会持续惨淡的情况下,亚洲的反弹更加的有益。亚洲不可能代替美国的消费者:新兴亚洲经济体的总消费量只占到美国消费量的2/5。但是真正事关重要的还是消费的增长。在美元计价的前提下,新兴亚洲经济体今年的消费支出增长在弥补完美国和欧元区亏空后仍有剩余。这种消费从西向东的转移对世界经济的再平衡有所裨益。

Beijing, Bangkok and Bangalore: beware boastfulness
北京,曼谷和班加罗尔:警惕夜郎自大

It is easy to boost an economy with lots of government spending. But Asian policymakers now face two difficult problems. Their immediate dilemma is how to sustain recovery without inflating credit and asset-price bubbles. Local equity and property markets are starting to froth. But policymakers’ reluctance to let their currencies rise faster against the dollar means that their monetary policy is, in effect, being set by America’s Federal Reserve, and is therefore too lax for these perkier economies. The longer-term challenge is that once the impact of governments’ fiscal stimulus fades, growth will slow unless economic reforms are put in place to bolster private spending—something Japan, alas, never did (see article).
用大量的政府支出来助推经济是很容易办到的。但是亚洲的政策制定者面临着两个艰难的问题。当务之急的两难选择就是如何在不扩张信贷,不膨胀资产价格泡沫的基础上维持经济复苏,国内股票和资本市场已经开始泡沫化。但是政策制定者不愿意其货币兑美元的汇率上升的太快,这意味他们的货币政策事实上是由美联储掌控的,因此,这些生机勃勃的经济体中,其货币政策是极度宽松的。政策制定者长期的挑战是,一旦政府财政刺激的影响褪去,除非施行经济改革来加强私人消费,否则经济增长会放缓。哎,日本从来不会改革经济

Part of the solution to both problems—preventing bubbles and strengthening domestic spending—is to allow exchange rates to rise. If Asian central banks stopped piling up reserves to hold down their currencies, this would help stem domestic liquidity. Stronger currencies would also shift growth from exports to domestic demand and increase households’ real spending power—and help ward off protectionists in the West.
解决防止泡沫和加强国内消费这两个问题的一部分解决方法是允许汇率上涨。如果亚洲央行停止以压低汇率为目的的储备囤积的话,这会抑制国内的流动性。更强健的货币同样能将增长从出口转向国内需求并且增加家庭的真实消费能力 – 同时可以堵住西方保护主义者的嘴。

Hubris is the big worry. With the gap in growth rates between emerging Asia and the developed world heading towards a record nine percentage points this year, Chinese leaders have taken to warning America about its lax monetary policy (while Washington has stopped lecturing China about the undervalued yuan). But it would be a big mistake if Asia’s recovery led its politicians to conclude that there was no need to change their exchange-rate policies or adopt structural reforms to boost consumption. The tigers’ faster-than-expected rebound from their 1997-98 financial crisis encouraged complacency and delayed necessary reforms, which left them more vulnerable to the global downturns in 2001 and now. Make sure this new rise is not followed by another fall.
骄傲自大是一大忌。随着今年亚洲新兴经济同发达国家的增长差距达到创纪录的9%,中国领导人已经收到来自美国对其货币过度宽松的警示(同时华盛顿方面不再提人民币低估的问题)。但是,如果亚洲经济的复苏使得其政治家们总结出的结论是没必要改变其汇率政策,或是采纳结构性改革来助推消费的话,这会是大错特错。亚洲虎在1997-1998年金融危机中令人意外的快速复苏使其沾沾自喜,并且推迟了必要的改革,这使得他们在2001年和现如今的全球经济回落中更容易受到伤害。要确保新的增长之后伴随而来的不是另外一轮的衰退。


An astonishing rebound 惊人的回弹: http://insuns.com/article/18823-1.html